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Simon Chapman AO

~ Public health, memoirs, music

Simon Chapman AO

Monthly Archives: June 2026

“Prohibition never works”. Oh really? 150 examples where it does

28 Sunday Jun 2026

Posted by Simon Chapman AO in Blog

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health, legisaltion, libertarianiosm, nanny-state, regulation

Of all the arguments flung at public health over the 50 years I’ve worked in it, the claim that “everyone knows prohibition doesn’t work” has few rivals on the podium of insults. It’s fraternal twin barb, the odious, interfering “nanny state” epithet, often walks hand-in-glove with the enemies of prohibition.

I got a confused post recently telling me that the illegal tobacco problem in Australia was caused by prohibition which “never works”. Last time I looked, legal tobacco was on sale in every supermarket (except Aldi), corner store, service station, newsagent, tobacconist and many more. So prohibition clearly was not to blame, but anyway … just put it out there anyway!

“Works?”

Those beloved of this meme rarely explain what they mean by “hasn’t worked”. Do they mean that any ban which is ever ignored by even a tiny minority has therefore failed? Or is the only acceptable bar here, one of a ban eradicating eternally every last instance of a problem?

Slavery began to be outlawed in the nineteenth century. It remains legal in Afghanistan under the Taliban with the International Labor Organisation estimating that 50 million live in illegal slavery today around the world. So put your hand up if this mean that the prohibition on slavery has failed and so should now be abandoned.

“Everyone knows” US alcohol prohibition failed

Most claiming that prohibition doesn’t work point to the example of alcohol prohibition in the USA. Alcohol and drugs expert Professor Wayne Hall from the University of Queensland commenced his 2010 (pay-walled) review in Addiction of the lessons to be learned from alcohol prohibition in the USA with “ ‘Everyone knows’ that national alcohol prohibition in the United States between 1920 and 1933 was a quixotic and failed social experiment”.

In his erudite myth-busting review, Hall examined this factoid (unreliable information that is reported and repeated so often that it becomes accepted as fact) and its implications for policy debates about “bans” on alcohol. He concluded “It is incorrect to claim that the US experience of National Prohibition indicates that prohibition as a means of regulating alcohol is always doomed to failure. Subsequent experience shows that partial prohibitions can produce substantial public health benefits at an acceptable social cost, in the absence of substantial enforcement.”

His review and this piece suggest that prohibition was associated with a number of positive social and economic changes while it lasted, and that the almost universally accepted “fact” that it caused widespread growth in the black market for alcohol and in associated crime and corruption may in fact have been phenomena only documented for a small number of US cities. But most people just know it was an unmitigated failure cross the USA.

Outrage about prohibitions and the nanny state has a long history

Attacks rained down on Edwin Chadwick, the architect of the first Public Health Act in England in 1848. He proposed the first regulatory measures to control overcrowding, drinking water quality, sewage disposal and building standards. After he was sacked for his trouble an editorial in The Times gloated: ‘We prefer to take our chance with cholera and the rest than be bullied into health. There is nothing a man hates so much as being cleansed against his will, or having his floors swept, his walls whitewashed, his pet dung heaps cleared away’. And yet on the 150th anniversary of the Public Health Act a British Medical Journal poll saw his invention of civic hygiene, and all of its regulations, voted as the most significant advance in public health of all time. 

In February 1985, The Age reported that at least three Australian children had been disemboweled in the past two years after sitting on swimming pool skimmer box covers shaped like children’s seats. Before the advent of mandatory shatterproof safety glass for showers, over the years many suffered major lacerations and occasionally died after bathroom accidents.  Before 2008, it was legal for fast buck retailers to sell children’s nightwear that could easily catch fire: many children were hideously burnt and scarred for life. Random breath testing was first introduced in 1976, to the chagrin of the Australian Hotels Association. In NSW it was followed by  “an immediate 90% decline in road deaths, which soon stabilized at a rate approximately 22% lower than the average for the previous six years”.

These are just four of many examples of changes to laws, regulations, mandatory product standards and public awareness campaigns that were introduced following lobbying from health advocates. With these, as with nearly every campaign to  clip the wings of those with the primitive ethics of a cash register, there was protracted resistance.  I was a board member of Choice magazine for 20 years, and lost count of the number of times manufacturers staunchly resisted voluntarily making changes to their dangerous, ineffective or substandard products.

Tim Wilson MP

These bans and brakes on  personal and commercial freedoms  are routinely ridiculed as the interventionist screechings from that reviled harridan, the Nanny State. And the cathedral of the anti-nanny state in Australia has long been the Institute of Public Affairs (IPA). One of its early high priests in Australia was Tim Wilson, now Liberal Member for Goldstein, who pumped out an incontinent flow of the doctrine regularly in opinion pages and interviews.

In May 2013, Wilson, Australia’s champion of contemporary pet dung heap rights, railed that “Nanny state critics understand that incremental attacks on our freedom to choose are single steps down a longer road to remove individual choice and responsibility.” He wrote of the “rising groundswell of Australians who are sick of increasing local, state and federal government regulations of their choices”; denied that people like him want to “selfishly put their wants above the safety and happiness of others”; that we should all “learn to manage risk through our choices” and that it is not “the job of government to coddle us from the world’s evils, avoid risk and use taxes, laws and regulations to either steer or direct our behaviour.”

Those like Wilson opposed to state intervention in markets subscribe to often unarticulated social Darwinist values that imply that those with the misfortune to be killed, injured or made chronically ill by their participation in untrammeled marketplaces had it coming to them.    The unregulated marketplace and community is a kind of noble jungle where the fittest survive thanks to their better education and judgment in their consumer choices, their better ability to pay for superior, less dodgy products and to keep up repairs on their cars and homes, and to get employment in work that is not  dangerous or toxic. Children living in poorer housing near busy roads in the leaded petrol era, had only their parents to blame for their lead-lowered IQs: they didn’t have to live there! When a toddler drowned  in a backyard pool before mandatory pool fencing laws, it was the fault of the feckless parents for not being more vigilant, and nothing to with failure of government to mandate the cost of a fence as part of the cost of a pool. When kids ingested lead or other heavy metals from dodgy toys when these were legal, their parents should have just done their homework and not bought them.

Those who can’t keep up find their way into national health statistics where across almost every area of public health, the poor and less educated have higher rates of disease, injury, major disease risk factors and death.

Below is a big list of nanny state coddlings and protections that a then profoundly ignorant Wilson would have said are “rarely supported by credible research”.  I stopped at 150 and could have doubled, tripled or even quadrupled the list. We don’t hear much from the IPA and its ilk on any of these because they are all immensely popular, taken-for granted safeguards on our health, safety and quality of life.  Other countries are climbing over themselves to emulate many of these as best practice. Australia is one of the healthiest nations on earth.  The precious freedoms that they “erode” are almost always trivial and the industries that were regulated (with some exceptions like asbestos) reluctantly rolled over and still make money from safer products and procedures. No one cares less that their “choice” to buy leaded petrol has been removed. Only the most rapacious libertarians swoon at the unregulated, let-it-rip free market that would wind back the clock of civil society many decades if unleashed by their ideology.

So a public invitation to the IPA, Pauline Hanson and her ilk: which of these 150 heinous intrusions on people’s freedoms and the right to unbridled commerce have not “worked” and which does it wish to see abolished?

The regulations and laws below sometimes are explicit about prohibitions. But all set out what must happen for the standard to be operational. In doing so, each law, standard and regulation this sets up a prohibition on what would not be met if the standard was breached. So for example, compulsory third party motor vehicle injury insurance prohibits not having this insurance if you are a licensed driver.

150 ways …

  1. Access to pharmaceuticals: Drug regulation and scheduling
  2. Access to health care: Compulsory third party motor vehicle injury insurance
  3. Alcohol control: Minimum legal drinking age law
  4. Alcohol control: Responsible serving of alcohol law
  5. Building standards: Balustrade and railing height regulations 
  6. Building standards: Builders’ licensing requirements
  7. Building standards: Electrician licensing requirements
  8. Building standards: Elevator standards and inspections
  9. Building standards: Building fire safety standards
  10. Building standards: Building for space standards (preventing over-crowding)
  11. Building standards: Mandatory smoke alarms
  12. Building standards: Mandatory swimming pool fences
  13. Building standards: Maximum water  temperature regulation
  14. Building standards: Safety glass standards
  15. Building standards: Swimming pool skimmer box standards
  16. Building standards: Mandatory residual current devices (electricity)
  17. Building standards: Plumber licensing requirements 
  18. Cancer control: Ban on commercial sunbeds
  19. Cancer control: Sunsmart regulations for schools and day care (no hat, no play, shade provision)
  20. Child protection: Background checks for staff working with children
  21.  Child protection: Child pornography laws
  22. Child protection: Mandatory reporting of child protection incidents
  23. Congenital malformation prevention: Folate fortification
  24. Dental health: Fluoridation of water
  25. Disability: Disability parking permits and penalties  
  26. Drug control: Pseudoephidruine pharmacy controls 
  1. Drug regulation: Illicit drug laws  
  2. Environmental health: Backyard burning controls 
  3. Environmental health: Burial standards  
  4. Environmental health: Air quality standards for industrial emissions
  5. Environmental health: Controls on industrial discharges into waterways 
  6. Environmental health: Vehicle emission control standards
  7. Environmental health: Lead in paint banned 
  8. Environmental health: Lead in petrol banned
  9. Environmental health: Legionella controls for cooling towers
  10. Environmental health: Petrol and diesel fuel standards (for emission controls) 
  11. Environmental health: Planning regulations on open space
  12. Environmental health: Recycled water standards for reuse 
  13. Environmental health: Septic tank standards
  14. Environmental health: Sewage discharge standards 
  15. Environmental health: Stormwater discharge
  16. Farm safety: Tractor rollover harm reduction
  17. Fireworks: ban on private use
  18. Food safety: Abattoir standards
  19. Food safety: Food additive labelling 
  20. Food safety: Food allergy labelling
  21. Food safety: Food handling standards
  22. Food safety: Food standards (many)
  23. Food safety:  Genetically modified organisms regulation
  24. Food safety: Pasteurisation of milk
  25. Food safety: Café and restaurant food safety and hygiene standards
  26. Food safety:  Regulation of food storage temperatures
  27. Health promotion: Mandatory physical education on schools
  28. Health promotion: Rights to breastfeed in public places 
  29. Infection control: “blood rule”: in sport
  30. Infection control:  Autoclaving of dental equipment
  31. Infection control:  Bans on public spitting, urination , defecation
  32. Infection control:  Chlorination of water supply
  33. Infection control:  Dog faeces disposal
  34. Infection control:  Drinking water quality standards
  35. Infection control:  Immunisation standards
  36. Infection control:  Infection control standards and protocols in health care
  37. Infection control: Regulation of sex on premises businesses
  38. Infection control:  Mandatory immunization for healthcare workers
  39. Infection control:  Mandatory sewerage and sanitation in urban areas
  40. Infection control:  Notifiable disease laws
  41. Infection control:  Sharps disposal and blood borne virus controls
  42. Infection control:  Skin penetration legislation re hairdressers, dentists, tattooists, body piercing
  43. Infection control:  Veterinary and animal husbandry standards
  44. Infection control:  Water standards in swimming pools
  45. Information control: Advertising standards
  46. Mental health: Mental health scheduling
  47. Occupational safety: Workers’ compensation
  48. Occupational health: Asbestos building ban
  49. Occupational health: Dust standards
  50. Occupational health: Hard hats
  51. Occupational health: Harness standards
  52. Occupational health: Noise standards
  53. Occupational health: Personal protective equipment regulations
  54. Occupational health: Scaffolding standards
  55. Occupational health: Smoke free workplaces
  56. Occuptational health: Asbestos removal standards
  57. Product safety: Condom standards
  58. Product safety: Controls, bans on lead (other heavy metals) used in toys
  59. Product safety: Myriad of standards, bans, recalls etc.
  60. Professional standards: Childcare facilities
  61. Professional standards: Mandatory continuing medical education
  62. Professional standards: Licensing of healthcare facilities
  63. Professional standards: Medical, dental and allied health worker registration
  64. Professional standards: Nursing home regulation
  65. Public amenity: Outdoor noise regulations
  66. Public safety: Agricultural and Industrial chemicals regulation
  67. Public safety: Child resistant cigarette lighters
  68. Public safety: Child resistant medical packaging
  69. Public safety: Design rules for babies’ cots to reduce the risk of asphyxiation
  70. Public safety: Dog and cat licensing
  71. Public safety: Engineering standards for roads, bridges
  72. Public safety: Extraordinary powers under the Public Health Act to deal with emergencies
  73. Public safety: Gun laws
  74. Public safety: Hair dryer standards to prevention bath electrocution
  75. Public safety: Hazard reduction in playgrounds
  76. Public safety: Nightwear for children mandatory standards
  77. Public safety: Pesticides registration and control of use
  78. Public safety: Poisons act
  79. Public safety: Poisons labelling
  80. Public safety: Quarantine Act
  81. Public safety: Reduced ignition propensity cigarettes
  82. Public safety:  Regulations around provision of footpaths
  83. Public safety:  Safety standards fir fitness and leisure equipment
  84. Public safety: Sunglass standards
  85. Public safety: Total fire bans
  86. Public safety: Access to dynamite
  87. Public safety: Toy standards
  88. Radiation control: Carriage and transport of radiated material
  89. Radiation control: Dental x-ray equipment standards
  90. Radiation control: Commercial sun bed bans
  91. Radiation control: Uniformity in the control of radiation use
  92. Road safety: Air bags in cars
  93. Road safety: Bicycle helmet laws
  94. Road safety: Breath alcohol ignition interlock devices for repeat drink drive offenders
  95. Road safety: Double demerit points (driving)
  96. Road safety: Drink and drug driving laws
  97. Road safety: E-bike standards
  98. Road safety: Energy absorbing steering columns
  99. Road safety:  Infant vehicle seat restraint laws
  100. Road safety:  Mandatory motorcycle helmets
  101. Road safety:  Motor cycle helmet standards
  102. Road safety: Motor vehicle design standards
  103. Road safety: Pedestrian crossings
  104. Road safety: Provisional and learner licensing
  105. Road safety: Random breath testing
  106. Road safety: Random drug testing
  107. Road safety: Seat belts in cars, school buses
  108. Road safety: Speed limits
  109. Road safety: Speed limits near schools
  110. Road safety:  Fitness to drive medical assessments
  111. Road safety: Brake light standards on cars
  112. Road safety:  Traffic regulation in general
  113. Road safety:  Vehicle roadworthy inspections
  114. Road safety:  Dedicated bicycle lanes
  115. Tobacco control: Health warnings on tobacco products
  116. Tobacco control: Outlawing “light and mild” descriptors on tobacco
  117. Tobacco control: Plain packaging of tobacco
  118. Tobacco control: Smokefree public transport
  119. Tobacco control: Sales to minors regulations
  120. Tobacco control: Tobacco tax
  121. Tobacco control: Retail display bans
  122. Tobacco control: Strict duty free limits
  123. Violence control: Criminalising domestic violence and coercive control
  124. Violence control: Pepper spray ban everywhere but West Australia

Finally here is a list of 74 specific and categories of goods which are prohibited from import into Australia. It includes laser pointers, flick knives, body armour, chemical weapons, dangerous breeds of dogs, radioactive substances and mace. There are doubtless advocates for free access to all of these.

# This blog is an edited and updated version of my 2013 piece for The Conversation  150 ways in which the nanny state is good for us (read 43,000 times)

“An abominable moral calculation”: how Australia punishes poor smokers and the tragically misunderstood tobacco industry

11 Thursday Jun 2026

Posted by Simon Chapman AO in Blog

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Tags

smoking, sweden, tobacco-tax, vaping

James Martin is a Deakin University criminologist with a modest research track record in the tobacco control field. Of his 44 publications listed in Google Scholar, just five concern tobacco or vaping, with only two of these being published in peer reviewed journals. These five have received all of nine citations, with two being self-cites.

This background is relevant to his recent piece in Michael West Media, where he knits a loose thread between the current criminal tsunami of illegal tobacco and vape sales in Australia, Sweden’s falling smoking rates, Australia’s “punishment” of the tobacco industry, our alleged failure to reduce tobacco use, the failure of law enforcement to stem illicit sales and the heinous cruelty to the disadvantaged he says high tobacco prices cause.

His piece there provides  just one reference to support his assertions.  So let’s walk through how these stand up.

Tobacco control “harms poor smokers”

Martin argues that the Australian government has “abandon[ed] nicotine consumers, disproportionately some of our most vulnerable citizens, to early disease and death – an abominable moral calculation” because of instead of allowing vapes to be sold almost anywhere, it has confined legalised access to vaping through pharmacies to control the open supply of vapes to kids by self-described law-abiding convenience stores, tobacconists and vape shops.

While 2,358 pharmacies have dispensed over-the-counter vapes,  and the government fully subsidises prescribed smoking cessation meds to low income health card holders, the unabated supply of cheap illegal, flavoured vapes by criminals continues to undermine the same potential of pharmacy access that we see year in and out when nearly all of us participate in the 440m annual visits to pharmacies to pick up 331m annual prescribed medicines.

If crime syndicates were also brazenly selling these medicines in every suburb to walk-ins without prescriptions, saving low income customers lots of money, should we applaud their public spirited service to the poor and let them get on with it? Or would we instead applaud swift and serious government effort to close this down and uphold the rule of law? I know what I would do.

And Big Tobacco — apparently the new white knights of health promotion – according to Martin now “grasps that its future, at least in the West, lies in selling nicotine without the smoke.”  This is the same Big Tobacco which a decade on from entering the vaping and smokeless markets, still derives over 80% of its income from cigarettes with not one company setting a date to get out of tobacco.

Global Tobacco Industry Revenue Breakdown

  • Cigarettes: 83% to 88% of global sales
  • Smokeless tobacco: ~11%
  • Cigars: ~2%
  • Other products (e.g., vapes, pouches): ~3%

Company-Specific Financials

  • British American Tobacco (BAT): Reported that combustible products (primarily cigarettes) generated 80% of total global revenue.
  • New Category Products: “Next-generation” items make up 13.3% of BAT’s revenue.
  • Traditional Oral & Other: These account for the remaining 6.7%.

Philip Morris International: 58% of its revenue is still from tobacco

Source: https://www.tobaccoinaustralia.org.au/chapter-10-tobacco-industry/10-2-the-global-tobacco-manufacturing-industry

Martin’s claims about tobacco control harming low-income groups are also wildly uninformed. This link could have taken him to oceans  of Australian data and graphs showing that, regardless of what definition of disadvantage is used (composite indexes, income, education) disadvantaged Australians have been smoking less in parallel with smoking declines in their more advantaged counterparts, continuously since at least 2001. This is the case for both declining prevalence and reduced cigarettes per day. Here’s just one graph of many that are inconvenient to his argument.

Yes, the lowest levels of disadvantage do have higher smoking rates than those in the highest, but as a criminologist Martin may be ignorant that this observation holds for almost every disease, cause of injury, vital statistic or health related behaviour  (diet, obesity, alcohol etc), not just smoking. Poorer health travels with disadvantage.

And more news for him. It is not just tobacco prices which impact those on low incomes more than their more advantaged counterparts. This happens with every good and service they purchase, a truism in every country in the world where there is not perfect income equality for all people. In other words, everywhere.

In Australia today, there are only  two groups where a majority of people smoke: those with psychosis and those in prison. In every other group, early school leavers, the unemployed, single parents and First Nations people there are more ex-smokers than smokers. Talk of people who, as Martin insists “can’t or won’t stop” smoking, will always struggle to explain why so many millions of these disadvantaged smokers over the years have managed to quit despite their disadvantage.

They regret having started to smoke, have agency to quit (mostly unaided),  and are doing so more and more. Their higher smoking rates are explained far more by decades of higher smoking uptake than by lower quitting rates.

Few laws ever eliminate the problems they were intended to reduce. But we don’t see Martin’s equivalents in road safety calling for reduced penalties for drink driving because they badly sting those on low incomes, or ditching these laws because many continue to be detected over the limit.

We balance the harms to offenders with the declines in road deaths and injuries.

Can there be anything more perverse in public health than believing the poor would benefit by access to  cheap cigarettes which will kill two in three long term users?

Cherry picking in Sweden

Sweden has a low smoking rate (4.8%) and according to Martin, this is all down to the enlightened widespread use of non-combustible nicotine, especially snus. Ergo, Australia need only look to Sweden for the answer, right? Here, Martin is a champion cherry picker when it comes to advancing his argument.  Smokeless tobacco has been freely available in Canada and the US for decades and in both countries, it has low usage despite this open availability. In the USA, 2.6% of adults currently use smokeless tobacco and in Canada, only 0.6% regularly use it.

So do the US and Canada wipe the floor with Australia in reducing smoking given that they both allow open access to smokeless?  Ermmm no. In the US, recent use of any combustible tobacco is 12.6% of adults in 2023-24. And Canada? In 2022 it’s 12.9% for any use in the last 30 days. This compares to 11.1% in Australia in 2022-23. So where’s the dramatic impact in the US and Canada of open access to smokeless tobacco on smoking rates? Why only highlight Sweden?

Sweden was one of the first nations to implement population-wide tobacco control polices like advertising bans, anti-smoking campaigns and health warnings. But clearly there are also cultural reasons why Swedes use smokeless, much in the same way they are unique in taking to surströmming, a famous Swedish fermented herring delicacy. It’s considered one of the world’s most foul-smelling foods, with an overpowering aroma often compared to rotten eggs, sewage and rancid butter. Or like Australians’ passion for vegemite, almost unique in the world.

“Punishing” the tobacco industry

Martin implies that “punishing” the tobacco industry with policies like taxation, plain packaging, and smoking restrictions is somehow a uniquely Australian thing. Is he seriously unaware that the global Framework Convention on Tobacco Control signed by 183 nations, has an entire section (“Article”) devoted to ways of controlling the tobacco industry’s efforts to wreck effective tobacco control? Here’s a report I co-authored for the WHO in 2008, which catalogues the many ways the tobacco industry has sought to defeat, delay, disrupt and dilute effective tobacco control policies. But for Martin, they are apparently now the good guys.

The industry screams loudest about policies that threaten its sales, and the very loudest screams have always been about high tobacco tax. Most people understand what this means, but Martin thinks it’s somehow unseemly and the nice people in Big Tobacco are misunderstood social welfarists leading people away from early deaths.

Here are a few historic examples of the industry screaming about tobacco tax. The tobacco company Philip Morris (Australia) in 1983 said:

… The most certain way to reduce consumption is through price.

Then again in 1985:

… Of all the concerns, there is one – taxation – which alarms us the most. While marketing restrictions and public and passive smoking do depress volume, in our experience taxation depresses it much more severely. Our concern for taxation is, therefore, central to our thinking about smoking and health. It has historically been the area to which we have devoted most resources and for the foreseeable future, I think things will stay that way almost everywhere.

And 1993:

… A high cigarette price, more than any other cigarette attribute, has the most dramatic impact on the share of the quitting population.

In 2011, British American Tobacco’s boss in Australia, David Crow, publicly acknowledged the impact of tobacco tax, telling a Senate committee:

We saw that last year very effectively with the increase in excise. There was a 25% increase in the excise and we saw the volumes go down by about 10.2%; there was about a 10.2% reduction in the industry last year in Australia.  (see here at p xviii)

So if these (and many more like them) do not indicate virulent industry concern about tobacco tax, why has it carried on screaming about tax in the same way for at least 43 years?

Reducing tobacco tax?

Martin has been prominent arguing for the  “obvious” necessity of reverting tobacco excise tax to the halcyon days before illegal tobacco erupted in Australia. In this he and a handful of others are in lockstep with the entire tobacco industry who have chorused that Australia should revert to 2020 tax levels. The table below shows what this would likely do to recommended retail prices for a current budget brand, JPS.

JPS Classic (20s) May-20May-26Difference
Excise per stick (1) $0.94964$1.52829$0.57865
Excise per pack $18.99$30.57$11.57
Manufacturers cost (2) $6.65$8.33$1.69
Wholesale price per pack of 20 (3)$25.64$38.90$13.26
Retailer margin (4) $3.72$4.28$0.56
GST 1/11th of final price (5) $2.94$4.32$1.38
Final price per pack of 20    
Recommended price (listed in wholesale price lists) (3)$32.30$47.50$15.20
(1) ATO tax rates
 
 
(2) Manufacturer cost derived by deducting excise from wholesale cost
(3) Wholesale & Recommended price lists 2020 and  2026
 
(4) Retailer margin is at industry discretion
 
(5) Calculated by dividing the final price by 11
 
    

So today, when a pack of illegal cigarettes can be bought for $7 if you buy a carton, in what universe would price sensitive smokers look at a tax-reduced pack of JPS from Woolies for $32.00 and not continue to immediately walk across the street to buy a pack for $7 in an illegal shop –at less than four times the price?

And that $7 price could even go lower. Cambodia is a high corruption index nation (ranking 158/180 worst in the world). It is also a major transit hub for smuggled tobacco to other destinations. There, a pack of locally taxed cigarettes can be bought for as little as 34c. There is clearly wide scope for the price of illegal cigarettes to go much further south if ever required by ever lower tax drops.

And then there’s the inconvenient problem of Martin’s silence on how it happens that there is also massive illicit tobacco trade in many nations with tobacco tax much lower than Australia’s.

Vaping theology 26: “If Australia allowed vapes to be sold openly, this would lower smoking prevalence and kill illegal tobacco stone dead”

05 Friday Jun 2026

Posted by Simon Chapman AO in Blog

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Tags

australia, new-zealand, smoking, vaping

Photo credit: Lindsay Fox

Vaping advocates eat, live, breathe and rejoice in their nicotine addiction. But in 2024, they lost the political debate on vaping policy when the Australian Senate voted to make vapes only legally accessible through pharmacies.

You could hear their wailing deep into the night. This heinous decision would make accessing vapes hugely difficult, they swore. It was gently pointed out that Australians make 440m annual visits to some 5000 pharmacies, an average of 18 times per year, walking out with  331m subsidised prescriptions.  So onerous that vapers should have to go to such lengths.

They then retorted that the tiny range of allowed flavours were massively unappealing. They’d lost the parliamentary vote, but will never stop insisting that, unlike every inhalable drug in the global pharmacopeia where flavours have never been allowed for safety reasons, it’s just fine with vapes. It’s not OK to inhale flavouring chemicals in lifesaving therapeutics, but it’s quite OK to do that hundreds of times a day when you vape. Makes perfect sense eh?

The two main vaping advocacy groups, the Australian Tobacco Harm Reduction Association (ATHRA) and Legalise Vaping Australia both put up their white flags quietly and shut down. Those remaining are tiny inconsequential echo chambers.

But the recent focus on Australia’s massive illegal tobacco and vape trade has acted like smelling salts to a few punch drunk vaping advocates who were down on the canvas. They are now disporting themselves in new white hero hats holding aloft their messianic vision that the time is now right for the government to repeal its galactic folly on pharmacy-only vape access.

If vapes could be re-liberated from pharmacies and made available through all those highly responsible tobacconists, vape shops and convenience stores (who have never been known to break the law by selling illicit tobacco or selling to kids), many smokers who for the last 12 years have apparently never heard of vapes let alone tried them, would have the tape peeled from their eyes. En masse, they would discard their cheap cigarettes and storm into vape stockists. Smoking prevalence would drop like a stone.

There are a couple of teensy-weensy problems with these wide-eyed fantasies.

First, almost every illegal tobacco shop across the country – and there are thousands — is also stocking illegal vapes and have been doing so for at least four years. The vaping advocates’ dream is already a reality with a huge number of stockists and the cornucopia of flavours they lie awake dreaming of. This being the case, why then haven’t we already seen an avalanche of  smokers switching to vapes? Shouldn’t we be seeing vaping going through the roof already?

Not quite.

Second, there are many countries where the very policies that these fantasists dream of are a reality, for many years. Vapes are freely available in much of Europe, across the USA, in Canada, the UK and New Zealand. And sorry to mention this, illegal tobacco also proliferates.

This being the case, it should be obvious that smoking prevalence in such nations should be embarrassing the socks off Australia, right?

Let’s then take a look at data in a range of countries around the time that Australia’s most recent national data on smoking and vaping was published (the next data will be ready by the end of 2026)

Source

It’s clear that New Zealand is an outlier here: the other comparator regions have similar smoking prevalence, with the Smoking Toolkit Study estimate for England being higher and that for Europe much higher. Similarly striking is Hong Kong: despite banning the sale and public personal possession of vapes, it has just reported a 2025 smoking prevalence of 8.5%, down from 9.1% in 2023.

With highly liberal vape retail access across the past decade occurring as much, if not more, in England, USA and Canada as in New Zealand, and smoking prevalence in all these nations declining, any putative causal generalisation about the downward effect on smoking of liberal versus restricted vape access as in Australia becomes immediately contentious.  If liberal access to vaping sees smoking fall across populations, why are not all liberal access  nations’ smoking rates much lower than Australia’s after at least a decade of widespread use and liberal access?

And then there’s this bell ringer. In nations where data are available, there are 45 nations which have smoking prevalence under 10%. Just one of these nations (New Zealand) has liberal vape access policy. The rest don’t. So much for the vaping theology that vaping is somehow necessary to reducing smoking to rock bottom.

Other blogs in this series

Vaping theology: 1 The Cancer Council Australia takes huge donations from
cigarette retailers. WordPress  30 Jul, 2020

Vaping theology: 2 Tobacco control advocates help Big Tobacco. WordPress 12 Aug, 2020

Vaping theology: 3 Australia’s prescribed vaping model “privileges” Big Tobacco WordPress Feb 15, 2020

Vaping theology: 4 Many in tobacco control do not support open access to vapes because they are just protecting their jobs. WordPress 27 Feb 2021

Vaping theology: 5 I take money from China and Bloomberg to conduct bogus studies. WordPress 6 Mar, 2021

Vaping theology: 6 There’s nicotine in potatoes and tomatoes so should we restrict or ban them too? WordPress 9 Mar, 2021

Vaping theology: 7 Vaping prohibitionists have been punished, hurt, suffered and damaged by Big Tobacco WordPress 2 Jun, 2021

Vaping theology: 8 I hide behind troll account. WordPress 29 Jun, 2021

Vaping theology: 9 “Won’t somebody please think of the children”. WordPress 6 Sep, 2021

Vaping theology: 10: Almost all young people who vape regularly are already smokers before they tried vaping. WordPress 10 Sep, 2021

Vaping theology: 11 The sky is about to fall in as nicotine vaping starts to require a prescription in Australia. WordPress 28 Sep, 2021

Vaping theology: 12 Nicotine is not very addictive WordPress 3 Jan 2022

Vaping theology 13: Kids who try vaping and then start smoking,would have started smoking regardless. WordPress 20 Jan, 2023

Vaping theology 14: Policies that strictly regulate vaping will drive huge
numbers of vapers back to smoking, causing many deaths. WordPress 13 Feb, 2023

Vaping theology 15: The government’s prescription vape access scheme has failed, so let’s regulate and reward illegal sellers for what they’ve been doing. WordPress 27 Mar 2023

Vaping theology 16: “Humans are not rats, so everybody calm down about nicotine being harmful to teenage brains”. WordPress 13 Jul, 2023

Vaping theology 17: “Vaping advocates need to be civil, polite and respectful” … oh wait. WordPress 3 Oct, 2023

Vaping theology 18: Vaping is a fatally disruptive “Kodak moment” for smoking. WordPress Oct 30, 2023

Vaping theology 19: Vaping explosions are rare and those who mention them are hypocrites. WordPress 17 Nov, 2023

Vaping theology 20 : Today’s smokers are hard core nicotine dependent who’ve tried everything and failed – so they need vapes. WordPress 14 Dec, 2023

Vaping theology 21: Australia’s prescription vapes policy failed and saw rises in underage vaping and smoking. WordPress 10 Jan, 2024

Vaping theology 22: “Prohibition has never worked at any point for any other illicit substance”. WordPress 17 Mar 2024

Vaping theology 23: “84% of the Australian public are opposed to the way the government will regulate vapes” WordPress 2 Apr, 2024

Vaping Theology 24: “Tobacco control advocates are responsible for vape retail store fire bombings and murders. WordPress 27 May, 2024

Vaping theology 25: Vaping is as harmless as breathing in stream. So everyone relax. 10 tenets of vaping harm denial.WordPress 10 Mar, 2026

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